The International 2026: Noxville ran a million tournament simulations and identified the statistical favorites

Team Yandex is considered the top favorite for The International 2026, according to a simulation conducted by analyst Ben Noxville Stijnuisen. The team won in 22.7% of the simulations and leads by a significant margin.

Noxville conducted a Monte Carlo simulation with 1 million iterations. In second place among the top contenders for the Aegis of Champions, according to the statistics, is PARIVISION. Rounding out the top three favorites is Aurora Gaming, which edged out Team Falcons by 0.4%.

It should be noted that this is only the first prediction based on the simulation. Noxville plans to conduct several more modelings and track the dynamics.

As a reminder, Valve often releases a major gameplay update ahead of The International, which can significantly impact the list of top favorites. Additionally, the Esports World Cup 2026, which will take place a month before TI, will provide a more accurate picture of the teams’ form.

The International 2026 will take place from 13.08.2026 to 23.08.2026 in Shanghai, China. The tournament’s initial prize pool is $1,600,000. The seven invited teams will be joined by nine teams from the regional qualifiers.

As CyberScore previously reported, Chinese veterans have returned to the qualifiers for The International 2026.